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OVERs and the Nationals Go Together Like Forrest and Jenny

Anthony Rendon #6 of the Washington Nationals hits a three-run double in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on April 10, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

It’s been a great couple of days for the Washington Nationals, defeating the rival Philadelphia Phillies by a combined score of 25-7 to take the final two games of that early-week series. On the heels of those wins, the Nats open as a -170 favorite against the +160 Pittsburgh Pirates at home tonight. The total opened at 8.

Pirates vs Nationals Game Center 

Standout Stats

  • The OVER is 8-3 in Washington’s 11 games this year and 4-1 at Nationals Park. The average combined score in Washington’s last 10 games is 13.2. The average combined score in Patrick Corbin’s two starts is 11.0 and he has a 1.50 WHIP at home. He was tagged for three home runs in his last start.
  • The UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 games between these teams, however the average combined score in those games is 8.5. In Trevor Williams’ two career starts vs Washington (both in 2018), the average combined score is 3.0.
  • The Pirates batting average is just .194 and they have scored only three runs vs left-handed pitching this season (49 at-bats). The current Pittsburgh roster is hitting 15-for-61 career vs Patrick Corbin with a .811 OPS. Josh Bell leads the team with nine RBIs.
  • The Nationals have scored 45 runs in their last five games. Anthony Rendon leads the team with a 1.633 OPS while Victor Robles and Juan Soto are both also over the 1.000 OPS mark. Rendon’s 14 RBIs are sixth-most in the National League.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Nationals’ last six games against teams from the NL Central while the Pirates are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games at Nationals Park.
  • Patrick Corbin is 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in six career starts vs the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is averaging six innings per start and has a 1.28 WHIP. He made two starts vs the Bucs with the Diamondbacks last year – his team won both games.
  • This will be the first-ever head-to-head start for Trevor Williams and Patrick Corbin.

My Pick for Pirates vs Nationals

OVER 8 Runs

With the Nationals on an offensive tear and Patrick Corbin getting roughed up in his last outing, I’m happy to find a total of 8 runs in this game. I’m going to ride the OVER run that Washington is on both overall and at home.